ANTICIPATING MIGRATION FOR POLICY

A REPOSITORY OF USE CASES

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Name
Policy Objectives
Typology of Method
Timeframe of Anticipation
A Changing Population: German Population Projections

Subchapter on Migration in German population predictions. Some of the reports produced with this data include Nowcast, persons seeking protection, immigration history, naturalisations, among other statistics.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
not_specified
A counterfactual analysis of remittances in Kosovo

This study analyzes how remittances and migration affect poverty rates in Kosovo using data from 2011. By simulating a scenario without remittances, it predicts household consumption and compares poverty rates across regions. Results show remittances reduce poverty, especially in rural areas. To sustain this effect, policymakers must encourage investment-oriented use of remittances for long-term economic development.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
A Machine Learning Approach to Modeling Human Migration

Machine learning models that are able to incorporate any number of exogenous features, to predict origin and destination human migration flows. These machine learning models outperform traditional human mobility models on a variety of evaluation metrics, both in the task of predicting migrations between US counties as well as international migrations. In general, predictive machine learning models of human migration will provide a flexible base with which to model human migration under different what-if conditions, such as potential sea level rise or population growth scenarios.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
nowcast
Aligning Migration Management and the Migration-Development Nexus
The Aligning Migration Management and the Migration-Development Nexus project performed an analysis of 104 focus group discussions in 26 MIGNEX research areas illuminating how people discuss migration, including their perceptions of reasons for migration, factors influencing their decisions to stay or leave, and their overall understanding of migration.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
>_50_years
Analysing Future Mixed Migration in West Africa in 2030
The exercise aimed to test a new tool and offer insights into the scenario-building process, facilitating strategic futures analysis for improved anticipation of change, identification of blind spots, and effective planning on mixed migration, while also enabling discussions on specific policy areas requiring further analysis, such as integrating a crisis scenario component
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Australian Population Projections 2017-2066

Migration Predictions in Austalian Population Projections 2017-2066. Australian population projections, sourced from the ABS, span 2017 to 2066 with three series based on fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions. 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Bayesian Agent-Based Population Studies
This project aims to develop micro-foundations for migration studies by integrating demography, statistics, cognitive psychology, and computer science, utilizing Bayesian statistical principles to design innovative computer experiments and a bespoke modeling language for understanding migration processes and decision-making mechanisms.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
nowcast
Bayesian forecasting of immigration to selected European countries by using expert knowledge

This paper aims to enhance migration predictions by combining qualitative and quantitative methods through Bayesian models. It reveals the unpredictability of migration flows, emphasizing the importance of embracing uncertainty. Expert knowledge aids parameter estimation but has limited impact on model selection. Forecasts beyond 5-10 years are deemed unreliable due to increasing uncertainty. Decision-makers must weigh the costs of underestimating or overestimating migration flows based on uncertain forecasts.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

This article presents a new method for predicting international migration rates aims to provide clearer insights into global movement patterns. Despite an apparent increase in migration relative to population size, actual migration rates haven't risen significantly. While the model assumes independence of prediction errors across countries and time, real-world correlations may exist. Outliers, like wars, can affect predictions, favoring simpler models over complex ones. Nonetheless, the chosen model might underestimate uncertainties in long-term forecasts. Enhancements, such as incorporating population projections and considering economic and political factors, are key to refining predictions for better future planning.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Border Games: A Game Theory Model of Undocumented Immigration

The article examines a game-theoretic model of undocumented immigration, highlighting the strategic interaction among firms, native labor, elected officials, and undocumented immigrants, revealing that border enforcements impact is diminished due to strategic interactions and discussing the effects of labor market uncertainty on migration policy decisions made before or after market conditions are known. Undocumented immigration, a complex political issue, involves conflicting interests among politicians, firms, and workers in both destination and source countries. The game theory model reveals that changes affecting only some players may have minimal impact due to strategic interactions. For instance, lower wages in source countries can prompt more family members to attempt undocumented immigration, but increased border enforcement in destination countries may counterintuitively reduce successful crossings. Future research could explore the interplay between economic and political incentives in shaping immigration policies and their long-term effects.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Bright Futures: Spotlight on the wellbeing of young people from refugee and migrant backgrounds
This report explores the implications of megatrends on young people from refugee and migrant backgrounds, outlining the opportunities and challenges they face in areas like education, employment, cultural diversification, and digital participation, and emphasizing the need for future policy and research to address mental and physical health and wellbeing for all youth, irrespective of their cultural background.
policy_development
experience-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Combining Social Media and Survey Data to Nowcast Migrant Stocks in the United States

This paper proposes a statistical framework to combine social media data with traditional survey data to produce timely nowcasts of migrant stocks by state in the United States. The authors developed a statistical framework  to produce short-term migrant stock projections in the US, combining Facebook and survey data. Results showed improved accuracy, especially with Bayesian hierarchical time series modeling. Despite limitations, the approach offers real-time insights into migration trends, aiding in identifying unexpected changes. Future research could address evolving biases in social media data and expand the model to incorporate additional demographic factors. This methodological approach, blending traditional and novel data sources, can be adapted to analyze various demographic indicators beyond migrant stocks.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
nowcast
Danish Refugee Council 's Mixed Migration Forecasting

The project develops a forecasting model for total forced displacement from a country 1-3 years ahead. Total forced displacement is a combination of refugees and asylum seekers outside a given country and the internally displaced in the samecountry.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Demographic Scenarios for the EU: Migration, Population and education

This is a report by the JRC building scenarios for demographics of the EU and its related challenges up to 2060. The report delves into the factors shaping European demographics, including migration, fertility, mortality, education levels, and labor force participation rates. It addresses challenges such as population aging, a shrinking workforce, and high emigration levels in some EU Member States. Looking ahead to 2060, the report examines various scenarios to understand the long-term implications of these trends and how to mitigate negative consequences.

policy_development
exploration-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Electronic Early Warning, Alert, and Response System in Emergencies
EWARS in a box is a self-contained system for disease surveillance and response, suitable for remote areas lacking reliable internet or electricity, including mobile phones, laptops, and solar power, designed to support 50 clinics and integrate with the national system during emergencies.
emergency_preparedness
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Embroidering Futures

The Hilando Futuros (Embroidering Futures) project seeks to invite people to reflect on the present and future of migration processes in Montevideo. Hosted by ILDA and Hivos,  the activity opened up a dialogue through the creation of an embroidered textile piece based on the narratives and stories of individuals who have chosen to migrate from other countries to Uruguay

policy_development
exploration-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Estimating Future Migration Flows Under Social and Environmental Scenarios Taking Into Account Interactions: Insights From a Survey Among Migration Scholars

This paper proposes a method in which different potential change scenarios within a predetermined set of six key drivers. They subsequently involve migration scholars in assessing how these scenarios might impact both migration flows and the remaining five drivers. The study reveals potential future migration trends based on various drivers but the impact of these drivers may differ between sending and receiving countries. The study acknowledges limitations in simplifying complex migration dynamics and the need to consider disparities within countries and regions. It also highlights the non-linear nature of migration changes and the influence of unforeseen events like the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach is applied to analyze the case of migration pressure and demand originating from less developed countries to Europe up to the year 2050.

 
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
20_-_50_years
EUMigraTOOL

The EU MigraTool assesses and discerns the requirements of migrants, including refugees, prior to their arrival in Europe, aiding end-users in anticipating the quantity, gender distribution, and age demographics of asylum seekers and non-recognized refugees entering various EU countries. Additionally, it provides up-to-date information on camps, major cities, and conflict zones in non-EU nations. This capability enables the EMT to accurately estimate migration flows, providing NGOs with insights into the human and material resources required in specific territories before the migrants arrive.

 
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
experience-based_methods
backcast
European Asylum Support Office's Scenario-based Early Warning Workshop

The European Asylum Support Office (EASO) of the European Union in Malta comissioned Z_punkt to conduct interviews with experts and identify a list of influencing factors to think through the future of migration and asylum law in alternative scenarios. Z_punkt developed five scenarios in close coordination with EASO. The scenarios cover a broad spectrum of possibilities for the future and identify weak singals that might have otherwise not received attention.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
not_specified
European Union's South-East Europe Programme
Four workshops were conducted, involving migrants/civil society representatives, experts, and decision makers to develop opposing scenarios using identified drivers.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
EU's New Pact on Migration and Asylum
The Commission has proposed a number of legislative proposals under the umbrella of its New Pact on Migration and Asylum, as part of a comprehensive approach to addressing migration. The EU hosted a series of Citizen Panels on the topic.
policy_development
experience-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Experimental and provisional estimates of UK international migration

The estimates in this report carried out by the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom are rely on administrative and survey data complemented by innovative statistical modeling.  Some of the main points highlighted in this report are the UK's provisional migration estimates for 2022 indicate 1.2 million long-term immigrants and 557,000 emigrants, resulting in a net migration of 606,000.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
backcast
Famine Early Warnings System Network

FEWS NET employs scenario development as a methodology. This process enables the organization to construct a "most likely" scenario of the future, facilitating the fulfillment of its core mission: providing early warnings about food security crises to decision-makers.

emergency_preparedness
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
FES Geneva, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Global Future
Four independent scenario teams composed of participants from civil society, academia, migrants, and various regions were brought together over an 18-month period to explore potential migration scenarios by 2030, resulting in the development of scenarios through workshops, webinars, and interviews with key individuals.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Forced Migration Current Awareness
Forced Migration Current Awareness is a service that scans open access reports & scholarly materials relating to refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and other forced migrants.
emergency_preparedness
experience-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Forecasting asylum-related migration flows with machine learning and data at scale

This study introduces an adaptive machine learning system integrating data from origin countries, European border crossings, and asylum decisions. It forecasts mixed migration flows 1-4 weeks ahead, outperforming benchmarks. Unlike static models, it adapts to diverse migration processes, addressing temporal and spatial complexities. By highlighting causal factors, it enhances understanding and policymaking, potentially aiding international protection efforts. Rooted in migration theory and data science, this approach offers a robust early warning system. Its adaptability suggests broader applicability to forecasting complex systems with sparse data.

emergency_preparedness
exploration-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Forecasting Bilateral Refugee Flows with High-dimensional Data and Machine Learning Techniques

The paper assesses the practicality of constructing a refugee flow forecasting model, leveraging high-dimensional data and machine learning techniques. Evaluating out-of-sample forecasting models against a Random Walk baseline, the study incorporates Google Trends time series alongside asylum seeker flows and classical predictor variables. The results show that the Random Forest and XGBoost models are the most effective. It also finds that while Google Trends predictors offer marginal performance gains overall, they show promise in forecasting specific corridors with substantial refugee flows. The study recommends customizing forecasting models based on corridor-specific performance and shows the inherent limitations in predicting sudden migration shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic. 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Forecasting migration flows to and from Norway using an economic model

This paper was presented at the Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections in April 2010. An econometric model was used to estimate migration flows to and from Norway, incorporating economic forecasts. The resulting projection depicts a notable shift: from a decline due to the financial crisis, to recovery-driven growth, and ultimately a gradual decline reflecting Norway's changing economic landscape, notably reduced petroleum production. This projection model's ability to capture such a complete turnaround in trend is uncommon. The predicted decline aligns with other studies and recent migration data, showing a peak in immigration in 2008 followed by increased outmigration. Public opinion surveys suggest a majority in several countries, including Norway, favoring more restrictive immigration policies, although attitudes towards refugees and asylum seekers vary within Norway itself.

 
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Forecasting Migration Using Google Trends

This paper uses Google Trends data for migration forecasting models. It demonstrates significant improvements by replacing the gravity model with a Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture, outperforming standard artificial neural networks (ANNs). However, limitations include not testing the model on unknown origin-destination country pairs and potential improvements in computation methods. The study suggests enhancing models by incorporating factors like catastrophic events, unemployment rates, and internet usage. Additionally, utilizing categorical labels differently could capture more complex factors like distance and language similarities between countries. Despite losing interpretability with machine learning approaches, future work aims to employ interpretability techniques to identify key features for better migration forecasts.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
experience-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Forecasting under Uncertainty: How Network Composition Shapes Future-Oriented Cognition

This paper compares predictions against reality using nationally representative data. The results emphasize the importance of cognitive abilities and social networks in forecasting accuracy and find that homogeneous networks create blind spots, highlighting the cognitive gains obtained from diverse networks. The authors finds a need for  interdisciplinary data collection and call for integrating psychological and sociological insights for nuanced understanding and improved forecasting models. It show that social diversity can improve predictions particularly when using methodologies such as the Delphi methodology.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
not_specified
Forecasting U.S domestic migration using internet search queries

The paper addresses the challenge of forecasting and understanding large-scale migration patterns, crucial for both academia and government planning. It explores the use of internet search queries as a predictor for domestic migration trends, showing that these queries correlate with and even precede official migration metrics. The study demonstrates that incorporating search query data improves migration prediction models, offering insights into migration motives such as housing and employment. This method provides real-time, leading indicators of migration trends.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
not_specified
Future of cities: graduate mobility in the UK
This project used a place-based open policy-making approach to ensure that local and national experts combined their efforts to develop innovative and practical ideas. It involved regional seminars and workshops with cities and universities across the UK.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development

By integrating economic performance and demographic trends into functional migration models, this paper identifies two phases in migration trends, influenced by economic development and migration capabilities. The study focuses on emigration models, acknowledging the challenges of linking migratory moves to potential destinations. Additionally, it explores the potential impact of labor market dynamics on migration flows, particularly highlighting the growing migration potential in Africa. Future research could integrate immigration models to establish comprehensive population projection models and exploring various scenarios to improve the migration projections used. 

policy_development
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Global Trends 2040
The Global Trends 2040 report methodology reviews past editions, conducts extensive research and consultations, synthesizes findings, and incorporates feedback to refine the analysis.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Harnessing Scientific Knowledge for Better Policy: Evidence and Recommendations from the Horizon 2020 Project

This paper addresses the core insights of the QuantMig project. Highlighting the complexity and uncertainty inherent in migration processes, examines selected theoretical models for understanding migration, analyzes migration drivers in origin, destination, and transit nations, evaluates data and methodologies for building future migration scenarios and presents strategies for creating and communicating these scenarios. The project intends to work as a blueprint for studying future European migration flows, advocating for scenario setting to anticipate migration trends.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Horizons: International Futures Programme
The International Futures Programme (IFP) is the OECDs forward studies group, offering long-term strategic thinking and horizon scanning since 1990, addressing emerging policy issues and providing the Secretary-General with a flexible tool to tackle long-term and rapidly emerging global economic challenges, primarily funded by voluntary contributions and grants from various sources.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Hunger Hotspots FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity
This report offers tailored suggestions for each country, outlining key areas of focus for immediate emergency response and proactive measures to tackle ongoing humanitarian challenges. It aims to ensure swift protective interventions in the short term, even before new needs arise
emergency_preparedness
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Integrated Modeling of European Migration

In this article, the articles propose a Bayesian model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows among 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, using data collated by Eurostat. The authors also incorporate covariate information and information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement, and accuracy of data collection systems.

policy_development
expertise-based_methods
backcast
IOM's Immigration and Border Management

The IOMs Immigration and Border Management Division aids Member States in enhancing migration data collection, intelligence gathering, and risk analysis to enhance border management and migration policies while ensuring compliance with data protection laws and international standards.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Is the Mediterranean the New Rio Grande? US and EU Immigration Pressures in the Long Run

The research underscores the significance of demographic factors in predicting international migration patterns. It suggests that while economic and political factors influence migration, demographic changes, such as population growth, play a crucial role. Practical implications include anticipating future migration pressures based on demographic trends. For instance, the United States may see a decline in immigration due to slow population growth, while Europe may face sustained immigration pressures. Effective management requires coordinated immigration policies, especially within entities like the European Union. Additionally, this study suggests that historical migration patterns may not continue in the same way, with rapidly growing countries experiencing lower emigration rates.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Island World: Online Gaming As Secondary Data Elicitation For Predictive Migration

Island World, is an online game that serves as a small world simulation. Designed to facilitate self-reporting through diverse opportunities for disclosure, including closed and open-ended questions,the objective is to enhance this data by incorporating quantitative behavioral data exhibited by players within the game, alongside the system logs generated by the game itself. There are plans for the next version to include data-mining algorithms to uncover patterns that may be difficult to discern otherwise. However, the focus remains on gathering user feedback to refine the game and ensure accurate correlation between environmental stressors and migration behavior The ultimate goal of the game is to aid policymakers in mitigating the disruptions caused by human migration, including understanding individuals' perceptions of institutional roles in managing migration issues and disaster response. 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
not_specified
Making Migration and Integration Policies Future Ready
This paper provides policy makers with two guides to migration and integration policy making for the future. The first is an inventory of megatrends already underway and which will transform the environment for policy making. The second identifies weak signals of potential transformations and explores what would happen if these were to become major game changers. The scenarios include technological change; a shift in the very way people think about “integration”; the emergence of new stakeholders in migration and integration policy; and rising importance of non-OECD countriesas actors in migration and integration.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
exploration-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Measuring the effectiveness of surveillence technology at the U.S. Southern Border
This thesis explores the ways in which the United States investment in southern border security has seen several failed programs, leading to concerns about wasted funding, with the latest initiative, the Southwest Border Technology Plan, focusing on sector-specific technology integration and addressing measurement issues, prompting consideration of red teaming for more effective security assessment through a red teaming approach.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
nowcast
MigrantLife : Understanding Life Trajectories of Immigrants and Their Descendants in Europe and Projecting Future Trends
The MigrantLife project (2019-2024) explores the evolution and interaction of employment, housing, and family trajectories in the lives of immigrants and their descendants across the UK, France, Germany, and Sweden, using computer simulations and large-scale longitudinal data to understand the factors shaping their life histories and the potential for increasing diversity in European societies.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Migration: A simple system dynamic model

This article introduces a simple system dynamic model to simulate migration dynamics, considering economic and social incentives. The model demonstrates how differences in foreign exchange rates and economic downturns, like COVID-19, influence migration patterns. Despite its simplicity, the model offers insights into migration behavior and the role of economic factors (excluding remittances). 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Migration Data Using Social Media: A European Perspective

Migration emerges as a top political priority for the European Union (EU), requiring comprehensive data for effective management. The report outlines a methodology for estimating expatriate numbers across 17 EU nations, utilizing Facebook Network data. By adjusting for the representativeness of Facebook users, considering demographics and gender ratios, the aim is not to replicate migration statistics but to provide supplementary expatriate estimates. Despite its advantages in timeliness and accessibility, using ocial media data presents notable methodological challenges. 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
backcast
Migration in Russia and Regional Socioeconomic Development: Cross-Impact Analysis

This empirical study examining the cross-impact of socioeconomic development and migration in Russian regions.  The econometric analysis revealed that various types of migration, including international and internal labor migration, do not significantly impact the socioeconomic development of Russian regions. Labor migration, particularly internal movement, is strongly influenced by regional development, driven primarily by economic factors such as job opportunities. Long-term migration, however, is influenced by diverse factors beyond economics, including education, family reasons, and lifestyle preferences. The study emphasizes the multidirectional nature of migration flows and the importance of considering a wider range of socioeconomic and migration indicators, especially disaggregated by age groups. Further research at both regional and municipal levels is necessary to comprehensively assess migration's role in addressing economic challenges in Russia

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Migration Research Hub: Future Migration Scenarios
In this exploratory study, the International Organisation for Migrations Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC) and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) combine two separate methodological approaches - migration scenarios and a Delphi expert survey - to examine the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to better plan and proactively manage future migration.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Modeling Migration Dynamics in Labor Supply Forecasting

The report proposes an augmentation of an integrated stochastic population and labor force participation forecasting framework by a gravity-equation component to model future immigration and emigration, their interaction, and their determinants more appropriately. By conducting a stochastic forecast, the authors find that until 2060 the potential labor supply in Germany is declining by 11.7 percent, strongly driven by the even more distinct decline of the working-age population and only partially cushioned by rising participation rates.

exploration-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Modelling and predicting forced migration

This article proposes a Flow-Specific Temporal Gravity (FTG) model, informed by the random utility framework, to address these limitations. Using EUROSTAT asylum statistics and various indicators, including climate, conflict, and economic factors, the FTG model demonstrates the ability to account for heterogeneous migration behavior. Results indicate that as flow time-series data lengthens, FTG models' predictions become more accurate, while FE models become less predictive. The FTG approach faces challenges due to limited data availability, which restricts the inclusion of predictors. The paper concludes that while FTG models offer promise in understanding migration dynamics, addressing data constraints and exploring alternative modeling approaches are crucial for improving predictive accuracy.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
not_specified
Nation-wide human mobility prediction based on Graph Neural Networks

This research uses nationwide data to forecast large-scale human flows in Spain. By analyzing trip data spanning over nine months, a Graph Neural Network (GNN) is used as a powerful tool for predicting outbound trips within an hour, outperforming other tools such as  Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and rivaling the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) with greater efficiency. Furthermore, this approach simplifies deployment by requiring only one model for the entire dataset, contrasting with ARIMA's need for multiple models. Future research aims to validate this model across diverse datasets and explore synergies with online social network data for enhanced prediction accuracy.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
not_specified
Networking European Citizenship Education – Conference
This workshop included group work sessions on analyzing factors and generating ideas, identification of key drivers for scenario generation and presentation of scenarios to anticipate migration in Europe in 2020
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
New Frontiers: The Future Narratives of Refugee Crises

This report by UNHCR employs strategic foresight techniques such as signal mapping, causal layered analysis, and scenario archetypes, the report seeks to reveal novel narratives and alternative scenarios that can effectively address refugee crises.

policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Nowcasting Daily Population Displacement in Ukraine through Social Media Advertising Data
Social media data is leveraged from Facebooks advertising platform in combination with preconflict population data to build a real-time monitoring system to estimate subnational population sizes every day disaggregated by age and sex. Using this approach, we estimated that 5.3 million people had been internally displaced away from their baseline administrative region in the first three weeks after the start of the conflict.
experience-based_methods
nowcast
Openness to Migrate Internationally for a Job: Evidence from LinkedIn Data in Europe

This article improves the understanding of migration aspirations of professionals in Europe by leveraging a previously untapped data source: aggregate-level information on LinkedIn users open to work-related international relocation.  It demonstrates the utility and limitations of leveraging LinkedIn for studying job-related openness to international migration and quantifying the attractiveness of European countries. The authors find that  combining LinkedIn data with sources like the Gallup World Poll could offer deeper insights into migration trends.

policy_development
experience-based_methods
not_specified
Panel for the Future of Science and Technology
A What if scenario in which the STOA analyses the possibility of building cities on water, citing examples from ancient times and more contemporary examples.
policy_development
experience-based_methods
>_50_years
Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002–2052: impact of international migration on population ageing

This study projected European populations and labor force resources for 50 years, assessing migration's impact on social security and labor market challenges. It found that while immigration and economic activity can mitigate some effects of aging, a combination of immigration, higher fertility rates, and economic growth is ideal. Policy responses must address each country's circumstances, focusing on increasing fertility and economic activity in Southern Europe and a combination of measures in Central Europe. 

 
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068)

These projections are part of the Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068). The authors argue that forecasting immigration levels presents challenges due to government policies' influence, subject to rapid changes. In 2017, Canada announced a significant increase in planned immigration for three years, extending targets even higher for 2019-2021. This volatility underscores the difficulty in long-term immigration assumptions, highlighting the need for flexible forecasting methodologies. The authors argue that migration's complexity involves economic, cultural, and political factors, making future flows hard to predict. Despite theories attempting to explain migration, practical applications are hindered by data limitations and complexity which are explored in the article.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Predicting asylum-seekers with Google Trends

The paper evaluates the use of Google Trends (GT) in forecasting migration patterns, highlighting its varying predictive power and the contextual factors influencing its efficacy. Unlike previous studies focusing on GT's usability, this research emphasizes model complexity and contextual influences on GT's predictive ability. By analyzing EUROSTAT asylum application data and push-pull indicators, three classes of gravity models are trained to predict refugees' EU destination choices, with GT's inclusion examined. Results indicate heterogeneous effects of GT inclusion, challenging the notion of GT outperforming established predictors. This nuanced perspective underscores the need for comprehensive analysis of big data's strengths and limitations in migration forecasting, encouraging further research in diverse contexts and with alternative data sources beyond GT.

policy_development
exploration-based_methods
not_specified
Predicting Migration in Ireland: a Gravity Model Approach
This is a presentation that reflects preliminary results on migration prediction using a gravity model approach.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Predicting Spanish Emigration and Immigration

This paper offers insights into Spanish immigration and emigration trends for the 21st century, highlighting two main conclusions. Firstly, migration flows are primarily influenced by dyadic and time-invariant factors, with demographic characteristics at origin playing a significant role. Secondly, while medium-term projections suggest Spain will continue to receive large numbers of immigrants, long-term forecasts vary widely, making it challenging to draw definitive conclusions beyond 2050. 

policy_development
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Prediction of International Migration with Online Search Keywords
The findings of this report contribute to different literature by providing 1) a novel way for the measurement of migration intentions, 2) an approach to generate close to real-time predictions of current migration flows ahead of official statistics, and 3) an improvement in the performance of conventional migration models that involve prediction tasks, such as in the first stage of a linear instrumental variable regression.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
nowcast
QuantMig Estimates Explorer
The QuantMig Migration Estimates Explorer provides harmonised probabilistic estimates of migration flows among 32 countries in the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom, the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and North Macedonia, as well as to and from the rest of the world, based on publicly-available Eurostat data. All estimates also include selected measures of uncertainty.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
QuantMig Scenarios Explorer
The QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer gives access to the migration scenarios assumptions and results for 15 simulated scenarios of future population change in for 31 European countries from 2020 to 2060, as well as derived analytical indicators.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Reference Foresight Scenarios: How to Futureproof EU Policies?
Crafting four plausible future scenarios using the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach with the aid of over 100 experts, engaging in a highly participatory two-and-a-half-year process to co-create, validate, and enhance scenario narratives, all aimed at enhancing EU policy preparedness for uncertain circumstances.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Science and Technology Capability Roadmap for the Maritime Safety and Security Program
The Science and Technology Directorates Maritime Safety and Security program aims to improve U.S. Maritime Border Security through the development and transition of technical capabilities, with a ten-year program capability roadmap created in collaboration with the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
Search-and-rescue in the Central Mediterranean Route does not induce migration: Predictive modeling to answer causal queries in migration research

This paper investigates the "pull factor" claim using discrete time-series counts, focusing on aggregate-level analysis. Employing time-series decomposition and structural change tests, it explores shifts in crossing attempts concerning search-and-rescue policies. The authors also use Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) modeling generates synthetic counterfactual time-series, considering various factors like trends, seasonality, and covariates. This approach resembles difference-in-differences designs, offering robust predictions and inferring treatment effects. Model validation and covariate selection ensure reliability, with BSTS predicting unobserved crossing attempts under unchanged search-and-rescue policies. This methodological framework contributes to understanding migration dynamics based on specific policy interventions.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
not_specified
Sensemaking and the War in Ukraine
The Forum for the Future conducted a futures wheel exercise to analyze the potential ramifications of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, primarily focusing on interconnected systems and signal mapping to anticipate consequences and intervention opportunities
policy_development
exploration-based_methods
not_specified
Singapore's Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) Driving Forces 2040 Cards
The Driving Forces (DF) deck is a tool designed to stimulate discussions on influential factors shaping the future in 2040 and their potential outcomes, including surprising game-changing events, without making predictions or covering all possibilities, serving as a starting point for understanding possible changes, testing policies and strategies, identifying research priorities, or promoting long-term thinking.
policy_development
exploration-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Social Mobilization and Migration Predictions by Machine Learning Methods: A study case on Lake Urmia.

In this study, Lake Urmia was selected as the primary case study, and subsequent to the cleaning and normalization of the pertinent data (DOI:10.100), three distinct algorithms were implemented in the final stage of the proposed methodology. The findings reveal that the SVM-based model exhibited the highest performance with an accuracy rate of 88%.

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
exploration-based_methods
not_specified
Strategic Foresight: Using the ‘ETUI Future Scenarios for 2050’ to Respond More Effectively to Multiple Crises

This paper argues that goresight methodology, whether used alone or alongside traditional approaches, holds significant promise in augmenting empirical data by offering potential future scenarios. In this paper, several scenarios were used as narratives connecting present actions to future outcomes. The SEEMIG foresight exercise in Slovenia exemplifies stakeholder engagement in envisioning migration-related futures, yielding policy insights essential for enhancing migration policies, fostering integration, and addressing specific societal needs. 

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
20_-_50_years
Supporting decision making with strategic foresight: An emerging framework for proactive and prospective governments

This working paper discusses insights from research on strategic foresight, conducted in collaboration between the OECD and the Portuguese government to enhance decision-making and policy development in Portugal. It provides guidance for governments to further promote and disseminate strategic foresight for decision making.

policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
The determination of migration through focus group data
The Aligning Migration Management and the Migration-Development Nexus project performed an analysis of 104 focus group discussions in 26 MIGNEX research areas illuminating how people discuss migration, including their perceptions of reasons for migration, factors influencing their decisions to stay or leave, and their overall understanding of migration.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
5_-_20_years
The Future of Food and Farming in the UK
This report examines the significant factors influencing future food supply and demand, emphasizing the challenges posed by a growing, wealthier global population, climate change, and increased competition for resources, utilizing economic modeling and existing research to project potential changes in food prices and availability by 2050.
policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
exploration-based_methods
5_-_20_years
The Future of Migration to Europe: A Systematic Review of the Literature on Migration Scenarios and Forecasts
This report presents the results of a systematic literature review of migration forecasts and scenarios. Over 200 relevant publications were screened to summarize the results of the studies and information about the context in which they were produced.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
5_-_20_years
The Global Flow of People

To address the challenge of incomplete and incomparable migration flow data, Sander er al (2014) use statistical methods to estimate movements by linking changes in migrant stock data over time. They assume that individuals are more inclined to stay rather than move, enabling them to estimate the minimum migrant flows needed to reconcile stock differences for each country of birth. This process is replicated for 196 countries, resulting in birthplace-specific flow tables for global migration flows. Adjustments are made for births and deaths during the period to refine country-specific net migration estimates, which closely align with those published by the United Nations. 

resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
backcast
The Longterm Impact on Estonia of the War between Russia and Ukraine

This report evaluates the long term impact of receving refugees from the Ukraine-Russia war in the population of Estonia. Initially, the Foresight Centre projected varying numbers of war refugees settling in Estonia, expecting a positive impact on population growth due to higher birth rates among immigrants, particularly women. However, updated data on gender and age distribution suggests this impact may diminish sooner. Integration and sustained support are crucial for societal cohesion. Despite high initial support, economic fluctuations could affect refugees' employment opportunities.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
experience-based_methods
>_50_years
The Social Morphology of Skilled Migration: The Case of the British Middle Class in Paris

This paper challenges traditional frameworks of skilled migration, offering nuanced insights into the diverse patterns of middle-class migration. By highlighting the inadequacy of the 'expats' discourse, it provides a more comprehensive understanding of migration dynamics in contemporary world cities.  The research underscores the importance of contextual analysis in addressing the complexities of skilled migration, offering valuable insights for designing inclusive and responsive policies in diverse urban contexts.

policy_evaluation_and_adaptation
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
UN Population Division's World Population Projections 2022
The 2022 Revision of World Population Prospects is the twenty-seventh edition of official United Nations population estimates and projections that have been prepared by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. It presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and national levels.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
expertise-based_methods
>_50_years
Uncertainty in Migration Scenarios
The report employs macroeconomic modeling to address the uncertainty in migration forecasts and scenarios over different timeframes, using Bayesian panel vector autoregressive models for short-term horizons and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models for longer-term scenarios, aiming to offer informed migration scenarios and assess their uncertainty while identifying research gaps and methodological challenges in forward-looking migration studies.
policy_development
expertise-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Using e-mail data to estimate international migration rates

The article introduces a novel method using digital records to evaluate global migration and mobility rates, particularly beneficial for countries lacking traditional data systems. It highlights a trend of increasing mobility, especially among females, and addresses methodological challenges like selection bias in digital samples. This paper explores the potential of digital records for studying migration patterns and social networks. It also discusses using Twitter for sentiment analysis related to migration. It also addresses challenges such as selection bias in analyzing email data but it emphasizes the potential for theoretical advancements through innovative data collection methods. 

policy_development
exploration-based_methods
0_-_5_years
Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital
The Wittgenstein Center produces graphics on past reconstructions and future projections of the global population. This includes net migration rates up to 2100.
resource_allocation_and_operational_planning
experience-based_methods
>_50_years